Coordination and support action



Download 428.95 Kb.
Page1/15
Date conversion09.07.2018
Size428.95 Kb.
  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   ...   15
coordination and support action


D4.1 Report on Weak signals collection

European Commission Seventh Framework Project (IST-257822)

Deliverable D4.1




Report on Weak Signals Collection

Edited by:

Contributions by: Adam Cooper, Christian Voigt, Elisabeth Unterfrauner, Milos Kravcik, Jan Pawlowski, Henri Pirkkalainen

Dissemination level: Public



Delivery date: 31st of July, 2011

Work Package

WP4- Weak Signals Analysis – Emerging reality







Dissemination Level

Public







Status

V Adam.1








Date

31st of July, 2011








Amendment History

Version

Date

Author/Editor

Description/Comments

V0.1




CETIS

Bare template with first draft contributions.

V0.2




ZSI

Methodologies & Delphi Interviews
Template - Headings numbered (MS Word)

V0.3




RWTH

Dynamic Influence Network Models

Contributors

Name


Institution

Adam Cooper

IEC, University of Bolton, UK










Christian Voigt, Elisabeth Unterfrauner

ZSI, Vienna, Austria










Milos Kravcik

RWTH, Aachen, Germany










Henri Pirkkalainen, Jan Pawlowski

JYU, University of Jyväskylä, Finland











Table of Contents


Table of Contents 2

1 Introduction 4

2 What is a weak signal? 5

3 Methodology 12

4 Human Sources Stream: Starting Interview Round 36

5 Recorded Sources Stream: Identifying Emerging and Fading Terms 48

6 Conclusions 78

7 Appendix A – Raw Report - “Naive Method” Conference Abstracts 82


8 References 117





1Introduction


When talking about forecasting and about future studies the term “weak signals” (with its implication of being able to identify the very first signs that something will becomes significant, like a change of paradigm or technology in TEL) is recurrently mentioned but although there is already a history of weak signal collection the definition as well as the methodology to be used is somewhat unclear.

“Weak Signals” is a rather fashionable term used in parts of the future-watching community, although it is an ill-defined term as evidenced by the lack of a specific entry in Wikipedia. There is an air of mystique and magic about Weak Signals Analysis.

On the one hand, the importance of collecting weak signals seems very convincing as it allows businesses or fields of research for detecting opportunities that are not mainstream yet and thus give the organisation the chance to be ahead of others. On the other hand, scepticism arises from the difficulties to define the term besides other challenges weak signal research has to face.

The aim of this document is to clarify our understanding of Weak signals in the context of TEL and to define a methodology and a plan how to capture these signals from variety of sources. The approach undertaken as well as the results will support the roadmapping of TEL stakeholders in the TEL-Map roadmapping activities. In the context of TEL-Map, weak signals are being identified through three approaches (described in chapter 3). The approaches include:



  • Delphi study

  • Semantic analysis
  • Analysis of influence networks


First results are included for the first two approaches in this deliverable. The third approach of influence networks analysis will be studied further in WP4 while this deliverable demonstrates how this approach has been applied in a different domain.

The structure of the document is the following. Chapter 2 describes our understanding of Weak signals. Chapter 3 describes the methodology (the three approaches mentioned previously) for capturing weak signals. Chapters 4 and 5 introduce the main approaches for capturing these signals. Finally chapter 6 summarizes and compares the initial results of the weak signals collection process.


: docs -> projects
docs -> As a child Collins studied classical piano with Antonia Brico, making her public debut at age 13 performing Mozart's
docs -> The Archetype
docs -> Straight From the Heart by Dr. Linda Boen
docs -> Early Childhood iPad App Recommendations note
docs -> This romantic story is about two college students, Jenny and Oliver, who meet when Oliver visits the library to buy a book. Although Oliver’s family is poor and Jenny’s is rich, the two young people fall in love
docs -> Snow White Interactive Story
docs -> Frankenstein sfx questions By Stephen Jewell
docs -> -
docs -> It’s Your Story—Tell It!: A world of Girls Audience: This series is for Brownie Girl Scouts and is suitable for in-school and after-school troops. Purpose
projects -> Featured Pfizer Aviation Trenton The Atria Garden City, Long Island Iron Mountain Freehold, New Jersey H. K. Truck Services South Plainfield, New Jersey Jons Court Industrial Park Marlboro, nj david Michael Motor Car Freehold, New Jersey Aspect Computer


  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   ...   15


The database is protected by copyright ©hestories.info 2017
send message

    Main page