Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File


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Ext #1Alt Cause

Lots more alt causes--

A. Drug trade

Seth G. Jones, Fellow at the RAND Corporation and Adjunct Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown, “Averting Failure in Afghanistan” Survival March 2006

The cultivation of opium poppy also undermines security because insurgent groups profit from the drug trade.18 Indeed, the drug trade is a source of revenue for warlords, insurgents and criminal organisations in control of Afghanistan's border regions, as well as for members of the Afghan government.19 This strengthens the power of non-state actors at the expense of the central government. The cultivation of opium poppy has markedly increased since reconstruction efforts began in 2002. Poppy cultivation rose from 74,045 hectares in 2002 to 131,000 hectares in 2004, and then dipped slightly to 104,000 in 2005. The income of Afghan opium farmers and traffickers is equivalent to roughly 40% of the gross domestic product of the country, which includes both licit and illicit activity. Afghanistan's share of opium production is also 87% of the world total. The number of provinces where opium poppy is cultivated increased from 18 in 1999 to all 32 in 2005.20

B. Lack of a criminal justice system

Seth G. Jones, Fellow at the RAND Corporation and Adjunct Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown, “Averting Failure in Afghanistan” Survival March 2006

Finally, the absence of a viable criminal justice system has made it difficult to ensure security. World Bank data indicate that Afghanistan is in the bottom 1% of countries worldwide in the effectiveness of its rule of law.21 There have been several barriers to improving the justice sector. First, the central government's inability to exert control over the country affects justice sector reform. Warlord commanders, who maintain de facto control over areas seized following the overthrow of the Taliban, have established authority over some local courts. Factional control of courts has led to intimidation of centrally appointed judges. Secondly, the government's inability and unwillingness to address widespread and deep-rooted corruption reduces the effectiveness of the justice system. Corruption is endemic, partly because unqualified personnel loyal to various factions are sometimes installed as court officials. The Supreme Court and Attorney General's Office have been accused of significant corruption.22 A corrupt judiciary is a serious impediment to Afghanistan's ability to establish security and a viable rule of law, since it cripples the legal and institutional mechanisms designed to curb corruption.

C. Afghanistan failure inevitable---demographics and lack of women’s rights

Potts 09 – UC Berkeley professor, chairman of the university's Bixby Center for Population, Health and Sustainability

(Malcolm, 8/23. “The war for Afghanistan's women.” http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-potts23-2009aug23,0,3722899.story)

There are two wars going on in Afghanistan. One is to defeat the Taliban, and that war is not going well. The other is to liberate women, and that war has hardly begun. If the first war is won but the second is lost, Afghanistan will turn into a failed state -- a caldron of violence and misery, home to extremism and totally outside the Western orbit of influence. Last week's election, however imperfect, is welcome, but it means little as long as women remain enslaved in this patriarchal, tradition-bound culture. In most of the country, a woman needs her husband's permission to leave her home. Domestic violence is tragically common. Indeed, the government elected in 2004 passed, and President Hamid Karzai signed into law, legislation legalizing marital rape. Older men use their wealth and power to marry young women. In April, according to news reports, when a teenage Afghan girl called Gulsima eloped with a boy her own age instead of marrying an older man, she and the boyfriend were shot to death in front of the mosque in the southwest province of Nimrod. Currently, Afghanistan is one of the worst places in the world to be a woman, and -- as is the case everywhere women's rights are nonexistent or in decline -- the birthrate is high. Afghan women have an average of about seven children, and the population has been doubling about every 20 years. Today it is 34 million. According to U.N. estimates, by 2050 it could reach a staggering 90 million. That rapid population growth and the demographics that go with it drive most of Afghanistan's worst problems. All too often, demography is overlooked in developing countries, as I experienced in 2002 when I wrote the budgets for a U.N. agency working to rebuild Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban. Part of our job was to write a 10-year financial plan. As my colleague from the World Bank was closing his computer, I said, "You do realize in 10 years' time there will be almost 50% more people needing healthcare?" He hadn't. After an expletive and some more hitting of computer keys, the budget totals rose considerably. I made my first visit to Afghanistan in 1969. Even then it was clear that slowing population growth was a prerequisite for feeding Afghanistan, for its socioeconomic progress and for any shred of hope for a stable democracy. One result of rapid population growth is that two-thirds of the Afghan population is below the age of 25. The primary role models for the volatile, testosterone-filled young men in this group are local warlords. The reason Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden (who, incidentally, is the 17th child of a man who had 54 children) have found a haven in Afghanistan is largely because of the mixture of loyalty and anger generated among males in such a society, in which there are no genuine economic opportunities for advancement. The word "taliban" means "student." The men who condemned Gulsima and her young boyfriend were probably 18 or 19 years old. So in a country where women have had their fingers cut off because they painted their nails, where the Taliban threw acid on girls trying to go to school, is there any possibility of improving the status of women? Yes. When Karzai signed the law demeaning and controlling women, he did so as an ugly deal to buy the support of the very traditional Shiite minority in the west of the country. But linguistically, culturally and religiously, this population is simply an extension of eastern Iran. And Iran happens to be a powerful example of how family planning can liberate women and change a society for the better. In the 1980s, the typical Iranian woman had almost as many children as her counterpart in Afghanistan today. Even an oil-rich country could not support that rate of population growth. The Koran mentions contraception in a positive light, and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the religious leader and founder of Iran's Islamic Republic, endorsed family planning. Iran began to offer a full range of contraceptive choices and even voluntary sterilization. Before young couples could marry, they were required to receive family-planning instruction. The typical Iranian woman now has 2.1 children. The transition in Iran from high to low birthrates was as rapid as that in China, but without a one-child policy, and it has had similar social benefits. Maternal and infant mortality have fallen, and, despite repressive politics, the U.N. Human Development Index, using such measures as education and individual wealth, shows that the country is better off. How would this translate to Afghanistan, which is far behind Iran in so many ways? From my experience, I know that teenage girls in Afghanistan want to be in school, despite the cultural obstacles. And having seen firsthand Afghan women suffering from botched abortions, I am sure some, at least, want fewer children. In addition, Westerners are training female health workers. Private pharmacies often dispense drugs smuggled from neighboring countries. It would be possible to introduce contraceptives, even in remote areas. A stable, modern and functioning Afghanistan is the West's goal. But it is not worth risking the death of one more American or British soldier fighting there unless there is a bold, achievable plan to educate women, enhance their autonomy and meet their need for family planning. This feudal, fundamentalist, warrior society will never join the 21st century -- or even the 16th century -- unless we win the war to liberate women. Unless women are given the freedom to choose whether or when to have a child, by 2050 there will be millions more angry men age 15 to 25 in Afghanistan. If only a tiny percentage are potential insurgents or suicide bombers, no Western army, however large and however strongly backed at home, has the slightest chance of prevailing.

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