Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File

AT: African Economies African economies are resilient --- many conflict states prove


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AT: African Economies

African economies are resilient --- many conflict states prove

Hawkins 04 Tony Hawkins, University of Pretoria, Institute for Strategic Studies, “The Zimbabwe Economy: Domestic and Regional Implications,” Lexis, 4/1/04

Since the launch of president Robert Mugabe's 'fast-track' land resettlement programme in early 2000 there have been numerous forecasts of the imminent collapse of the Zimbabwe economy. Nearly five years on (June 2004), although it is the world's fastest-shrinking economy, it remains remarkably resilient--a testament to the old adage that African economies do not collapse, but simply fade away into informality and subsistence. That, certainly, was the lesson of conflict economies like Angola and the DRC.

African economies are resilient --- reforms solve

Africa News 99 “Africa At Large: Treasury's Schuerch Discusses Africa Debt Policy,” Lexis, 4/15/99

Mr. Chairman, I would like to take a moment to review the sub-Saharan Africa economic position. I would say that here we can find cause for both encouragement and concern. The immediate road ahead presents a formidable challenge and we need to see a sharp reversal in many trends if positive growth is to be sustained. Africa remains the most protectionist region in the world. In many cases, the process of fundamental reform has just begun. Low investment is a chronic problem, with investment rates still only about 18 percent compared to 25 percent in low-income countries on average. The re- emergence of conflict has been devastating. Some 20 percent of Africans live in countries formally at war or disrupted by war, according to World Bank estimates. Corruption is a serious economic cost -- an area where the World Bank is making a strong push. †††But some underlying trends are the basis for optimism. There has been significant progress in improving social indicators such as education and infant mortality. While there was some weakening in overall economic performance in 1998, it reflected primarily declines in prices of key commodities, including oil, cocoa, and copper, and economic crises in many of Africa's Asian markets. But overall, given the events and forces which have buffeted African economies in the last two years, economic growth proved surprisingly resilient. We believe this resilience reflects the level of basic and continuing economic reform in many countries -- including gains in fiscal stability, decontrol of prices, and liberalization of exchange rates.

Alt caus – corruption and rule of law

Africa News in ‘7 (“Nigeria; Health Workers Are Under Pressure -- Comrade Wabba”, 11-10, L/N)

As a result of this "neo-liberal reform" which was implemented by the immediate past president of Nigeria, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo there have been serious deformities in the healthcare sector, the union boss said. The union boss also lamented that thousands of workers who were retrenched were not paid their severance package up to this moment in the health parastatals. The theme of this year's conference "towards a new agenda of quality healthcare delivery in Nigeria" is aimed at setting a new target for the health workers, to meet the challenges ahead. The conference which has in attendance healthcare service workers' union from West Africa sub-region is also taking stock of the performance of the workers in healthcare delivery in the region. The union boss who also attributed corruption and disobedience to rule of law by health workers as the major cause of mass poverty and diseases in the suba-region also stressed the need for a safe workplace for health workers and professionals in Nigeria and African sub-region.

Poverty is decreasing

Zambia Daily Mail, 9 – 3 – 08

(BBC Monitoring Africa – Political, “World Bank urges Zambians, media to ensure good governance”, L/N)

Meanwhile, the World Bank says that poverty in Africa has reduced even though the reduction was not much. Mr Bruce, however, pointed out that African countries were reducing poverty faster than what was being seen in south Asia. "There is hope for Africa and with so many countries growing at above five per cent, with or without natural resources, the prospects are good," he said.

AT: African Nuclear Wars (Deutch)

1. War in the Congo disproves your impact—it drew in all regional powers and international interests—didn’t go nuclear or escalate

Porteous 04 (Tom, London director of Human Rights Watch and syndicated columnist, writer and analyst who has worked for the BBC and the U.K. Foreign & Commonwealth Office, October. “Resolving African Conflicts.” http://www.crimesofwar.org/africa-mag/afr_01_porteos.html)

If a storm can be described as perfect
, then the war in the
Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire) in the second half of the 1990s was the “perfect war”. Precipitated by the 1994 genocide in Rwanda and the fall of the West’s client kleptocrat, President Mobutu, and his rotten state, the war in DR Congo was dubbed Africa’s First World War. It directly involved the armed forces of six neighbouring states. It drew in factions and rebel groups from other African wars, the remnant armies of defunct neighbouring regimes, and the usual crowd of international profiteers, would-be peacemakers and humanitarians. It was closely connected with armed conflicts in several neighbouring countries, including those in Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Central African Republic, Congo Brazzaville, and Angola. According to one estimate published in 2003 the war may directly and indirectly have caused the deaths of over 4 million people in DR Congo since 1996. As has become increasingly common in Africa the victims were almost all civilians. The war in DR Congo was but one demonstration of the emptiness of the promises of a post Cold War political and economic renaissance for Africa. There was, it is true, the remarkable transition from apartheid to majority rule in South Africa in 1994. There were also instances of handover to multiparty civilian rule in former one-party or military-ruled states like Ghana, Tanzania, Senegal, Mali, Zambia, Malawi, and even Nigeria. But by the end of the 1990s, any political and economic progress since the end of the Cold War had been overshadowed by a series of old and new wars that now engulfed many parts of the continent and were tipping whole regions further into instability and poverty.

2. African wars don’t escalate—this postdates Douche and is more qualified

Porteous 04 (Tom, London director of Human Rights Watch and syndicated columnist, writer and analyst who has worked for the BBC and the U.K. Foreign & Commonwealth Office, October. “Resolving African Conflicts.” http://www.crimesofwar.org/africa-mag/afr_01_porteos.html)

It would be futile to search for a single explanation for what appears for now to be a trend towards the resolution of African conflicts. Africa’s wars are as heterogeneous as its many nations and communities. The reasons why Angola’s conflict came to end are quite different from the reasons why the belligerents in Sudan’s civil war have been willing to engage seriously in peace talks. However some of the successes of the past three years can be attributed in part to a mixture of fatigue on the part of those fighting African wars and to the fact that both Africans and non-Africans are learning lessons from the many failures of the past fifteen years, are coming up with more creative proposals and solutions to tackle the problem of conflict, and are readier to take risks in implementing them. Although the details vary widely from conflict to conflict, the basic ingredients of resolution remain the same – a combination of military, diplomatic, humanitarian, and economic action delivered by a more or less complex coalition of local, regional and international actors.
3. No escalation – the Cold War is over

Cilliers, 2k  - Institute for Security Studies  (Jackie, “International Policies, African Realities”, 3/18, http://www.africaaction.org/rtable/cil0003.htm

During the Cold War regional conflicts were at once internationalised and subsumed within the superpower competition and controlled to avoid escalation into nuclear conflict. In the process the strategic relevance of regions such as Africa was elevated as part of the global chess board - pawns in a much larger game. At the beginning of the twenty first century the situation is much changed. Africa has lost its strategic relevance. Apart from humanitarian concerns, only selected areas with exploitable natural resources demand the attention of the larger and more powerful countries. A blurring in the clear demarcation of roles between sub-regional, regional and international organisations - the UN in particular ­ has occurred after the end of the Cold War. During the bi-polar era, the division of labour was clear. The UN mounted peacekeeping operations and deployed political missions, while regional organisations concentrated on preventive diplomacy. The proliferation of internal conflicts after the fall of the Berlin Wall has confounded this clear division. Almost as if to mirror this trend, the increase in the number and the nature of the various actors involved in internal conflicts have further complicated the ability of state-centred negotiations and mediation to succeed. Direct conflict between African states has, in fact, been a relatively isolated phenomenon and those that have taken place have not involved any substantial commitment of resources for peacekeeping operations. Virtually all African conflicts that have involved some type of peacekeeping effort have been conflicts within states. An important reason for this feature is the permeability of African borders and the weakness of African states themselves. This does not deny the fact that virtually all of these internal conflicts have had a regional dimension. In many cases neighbouring countries have involved themselves in the internal affairs of others or allowed their territory to be used as a springboard for such involvement. In others countries do not control their own territory and cannot end cross-border actions, particularly when international boundaries cut through rather than follow broad ethnic and tribal divides. Globally a new security paradigm seems to be emerging. This consists of regions accepting co-responsibility and sharing the burden to police themselves and a dilution of the central role that many had hoped that the United Nations would play in this regard. This agenda is primarily, but not exclusively, driven by the United States that is seeking co-option and burden sharing by others in the hegemonic role that the demise of the Soviet Union had thrust upon it.

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