Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File

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AT: AIDs


1. HIV is not capable of wiping out the world’s population – science and history prove

Caldwell, 03 George, PhD in Biology and Political Science, http://www.foundation.bw/TheEndOfTheWorld.htm

Disease could wipe out mankind.[sic] It is clear that HIV/AIDS will not accomplish this – it is not even having a significant impact on slowing the population explosion in Africa, where prevalence rates reach over thirty percent in some countries. But a real killer plague could certainly wipe out mankind. The interesting thing about plagues, however, is that they never seem to kill everyone – historically, the mortality rate is never 100 per cent (from disease alone). Based on historical evidence, it would appear that, while plagues may certainly reduce human population, they are not likely to wipe it out entirely. This notwithstanding, the gross intermingling of human beings and other species that accompanies globalization nevertheless increases the likelihood of global diseases to high levels.


2. They have zero internal links about solving globally – even if they protect one critical area there is no evidence that medicine would be distributed globally – the problem lies within poverty and lack of education and access 

3. Their statistics are horrendously inaccurate


The Nation (Nairobi), Wandera Ojanji, Africa News, November 16, 2000

Statistics quoted by most development agencies suggest millions of Kenyans are sick and dying. Expert opinion is questioning the authenticity of these figures. About thirty per cent of all Kenyans (8.4 million) are infected with tuberculosis, with about 16,700 dying every year. Seventy per cent or 20 million are exposed to malaria every year with 26,000 children below five years dying every year (or 72 children a day). More than 2.2 million Kenyans are infected with HIV, with 240,000 dying every year from Aids Between 20 and 30 per cent of Kenyans are either suffering from typhoid or are carriers of the disease, of which a third (over 1.9million) eventually die even after seeking medical treatment. The figures are far much above the official figures given by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). Take for instance Aids. According to the estimates, it is said to be killing 182,500 people annually. The total reported deaths, from all causes, by CBS were 185,576 in 1997 and 221,543 in 1998. Consequently this would mean only about 3000 people died from other causes than Aids in 1997. The head of Health Information Systems at the Ministry of Health Mr. Godfrey M Baltazar says of the quoted HIV/Aids cases: "These estimates are subject to wide margins of error. They are based on blood samples taken from pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in a few sentinel sites, all of which are in urban areas and assumed to be representative of the entire Kenyan population, which they are not. Their extrapolation to non-pregnant women, males and the rural population are based on assumptions which have little empirical foundation." Until mid this year, Mr. Baltazar was an epidemiological officer at National Aids and STI Control Council ( NASCOP) . He argued that in the absence of a population or community survey, these figures cannot be accepted as credible. Kenya has not done any. "Such surveys are very critical as this is the only way to validate the data." Health statistics estimated are mainly done by the WHO. It is said that after the ministry forwards the figures to WHO. The latter will then subject the data to farther mathematical processes, apparently to take care of the 'low under- reporting rates' of government agencies. This has in the past created glaring discrepancies between government figures and those floated by private or non- governmental agencies. This argument is strongly supported by Prof Charles Geshekter of California State University, USA who accuses the players for deliberately adopting very misleading ways of determining HIV cases in Africa that generate very wrong and scary figures. In Africa, the Western public officials determine the presence of Aids based on a set of symptoms rather than on the confirmation by blood testing, the standards used in America and Europe. In Africa, Aids is defined, according to WHO, as a combination of fever, persistent cough, diarrhoea and a 10 per cent loss of body weight. "It is impossible to distinguish these common symptoms from those of malaria, TB or the indigenous diseases of the impoverished lands." argues Geshekter

4. No mutation – it’s not likely and viral mutations always short-circuit

Bernard Fields, M.D., Adele Lehman Professor and Chairman of the Department of Microbiology & Molecular Genetics at Harvard Medical School, “Emerging Viruses,” edited by Stephen S. Morse, 1993

I think the answer has to lie in the fact that there is an enormous difference in the selective pressures faced by a virus growing in the relatively undemanding environment of cell culture, which illustrates the capacity of a virus to change, and life in the real world, where the virus must survive in a specific environment and as well as within a host, providing the virus with a series of constraints and selective pressures (Tyler and Fields, 1991). When the virus enters a host, there are a series of sequential steps within the host, each of which places further constraints on the virus (Sharpe and Fields, 1985). Because of these constraints, at many points in the life cycle of the virus, much of the potential of the virus to change results in viruses that cannot survive since it will be missing critical properties. We are dealing with a constantly shifting interaction between the virus in the host and its own intrinsic capacity to change. The viral lifestyle thus places constraints and selective pressures on viral evolution. This lifestyle involves infecting host cells, then using the viral genetic information to direct cellular machinery to make viral products. Unlike other organisms, viruses reproduce themselves or make viral products only when a host cell can do this for them under the genetic control of the virus. Because of this, the host-virus interaction is key to many aspects of viral disease.



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